The State-by-State Impact on Jobs and Family Incomes of the House GOP Blueprint

April 11, 2017

There have been a raft of studies recently isolating the effect of certain elements of the House GOP tax reform “Blueprint” on various industries and even the 50 states. While it is understandable that interest groups whose business models are tied to a particular provision of the tax code would wish to draw attention to how a specific element of the Blueprint would impact them, it is also important for lawmakers who are subject to a heavy dose of lobbying to recognize that the Blueprint is a comprehensive tax reform plan, so it is important to focus on the total effects of the plan on the economy and families.

Using the Tax Foundation’s Taxes and Growth (TAG) macroeconomic tax model, our analysis found that the “plan would significantly reduce the cost of capital and reduce the marginal tax rate on labor. These changes in the incentives to work and invest would greatly increase the U.S. economy’s size in the long run, boost wages, and result in more full-time equivalent jobs.”

Indeed, the TAG model estimates that the plan would result in the creation of roughly 1.7 million new full-time equivalent jobs, while increasing the after-tax incomes of median households by 8.7 percent. The increase in family incomes is the result of both the income tax cuts and the broader rise in productivity and wages due to economic growth. These estimates take into account all aspects of the Blueprint, including the impact of the border adjustment.

The table below illustrates the state-by-state impact of the plan for both new jobs and the boost to after-tax incomes for middle-income families.

Note: The results here use Census figures to illustrate the income gains for median households by state. These estimates will differ slightly from our previous estimates using aggregate IRS figures to illustrate the income gains for taxpayers at various income levels. 
Source: Tax Foundation TAG Model, U.S. Census
Impact of the House GOP “Blueprint” on Jobs and After-Tax Incomes by State
   Estimated FTE Jobs Added Estimated Gain in After Tax Income for Median Households 
United States 1,687,000  $4,917
Alabama 23,062  $3,872
Alaska 3,938  $6,535
Arizona 31,424  $4,546
Arkansas 14,355  $3,723
California 191,767  $5,536
Colorado 30,255  $5,794
Connecticut 19,696  $6,341
Delaware 5,300  $5,025
D.C. 9,154  $6,096
Florida 97,220  $4,248
Georgia 50,850  $4,417
Hawaii 7,566  $5,613
Idaho 8,069  $4,491
Illinois 70,423  $5,256
Indiana 36,036  $4,523
Iowa 18,397  $5,294
Kansas 16,546  $4,773
Kentucky 22,386  $3,688
Louisiana 23,201  $3,995
Maine 7,236  $4,416
Maryland 31,621  $6,403
Massachusetts 41,563  $5,904
Michigan 50,337  $4,716
Minnesota 33,809  $5,980
Mississippi 13,446  $3,483
Missouri 33,131  $5,150
Montana 5,462  $4,471
Nebraska 11,852  $5,261
Nevada 15,043  $4,525
New Hampshire 7,811  $6,584
New Jersey 47,548  $5,947
New Mexico 9,749  $3,925
New York 109,733  $5,046
North Carolina 50,511  $4,419
North Dakota 5,123  $4,995
Ohio 64,194  $4,637
Oklahoma 19,488  $4,096
Oregon 21,351  $5,293
Pennsylvania 68,777  $5,254
Rhode Island 5,735  $4,846
South Carolina 23,939  $4,033
South Dakota 5,046  $4,791
Tennessee 34,517  $4,118
Texas 140,374  $4,913
Utah 16,539  $5,764
Vermont 3,663  $5,176
Virginia 45,763  $5,349
Washington 37,586  $5,850
West Virginia 8,803  $3,726
Wisconsin 34,257  $4,822
Wyoming 3,348  $5,300

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