Resources on the Dynamic Scoring Issue

May 17, 2006

As the President signs the latest tax cut bill today, much discussion has centered on the economic growth consequences—both short-run and long-run—of such tax cuts, as well as the revenue implications. Many economists have discussed to what extent, if any, static analysis of the extended tax cuts overstates their foregone revenue costs.

For those unfamiliar with the issue or those merely seeking further reading on the topic, we‘ve assembled a collection of articles (some technical, some general) on the issue of “dynamic scoring.” We’ve attempted to provide a balanced compilation of the literature, focusing on the main players in the dynamic scoring debate over the past thirty years, including Alan Auerbach, Martin Feldstein, and Arthur Laffer.

Note this collection includes only literature that is freely available on the web, and excludes many academic articles available only through services such as JSTOR.

Dynamic Scoring: An Introduction to the Issue, by Alan Auerbachhttp://emlab.berkeley.edu/users/auerbach/dynamscor.pdf

Static vs. Dynamic Scoring, American Enterprise Institute Event (November 2003), includes video, transcripts, and summary of event, which included, among others Auerbach, Martin Feldstein, Bill Gale (Brookings), Kevin Hassett (AEI), Douglas Holtz-Eakin, and Benjamin Page.http://www.aei.org/events/filter.all,eventID.662/event_detail.asp

Overview of Revenue Estimation Procedures and methodologies Used by the Joint Committee on Taxationhttp://www.house.gov/jct/x-1-05.pdf

Dynamic Scoring: A Back-of-the-Envelope Guide (fairly technical using economic growth theory), by Greg Mankiw and Matthew Weinzierlhttp://post.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/mankiw/papers/dynamicscoring_05-1212.pdf

Dynamic Scoring: Alternative Financing Schemes (technical), by Eric Leeper and Shu-Chun Susan Yanghttp://www.nber.org/papers/w12103.pdf

Macroeconomic Implications of Federal Budget Proposals and the Scoring Process, by Peter Orszaghttp://www.brook.edu/views/testimony/Orszag/20020502.pdf

The Role of Dynamic Scoring in the Federal Budget Process: Closing the Gap between Theory and Practice, by Rosanne Altshuler, Nicholas Bull, John Diamond, Tim Dowd and Pamela Moomauhttp://www.aeaweb.org/annual_mtg_papers/2005/0107_1430_1302.pdf

Methodology and Issues in Measuring Changes in the Distribution of Tax Burdenshttp://www.house.gov/jct/s-7-93.pdf

The Effect of Taxes on Efficiency and Growth, by Martin Feldsteinhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w12201

The Laffer Curve (Wiki entry)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve

On the Analytics of the Dynamic Laffer Curve, by Jonas Egell and Mats Perrsonhttp://www.iies.su.se/publications/seminarpapers/682.pdf

CBO Testimony on Federal Budget Estimating (May 2002)http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=3422&sequence=0http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=3511&sequence=0http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=3384&sequence=0

The Case for Dynamic Scoring, Bruce Bartlett (2002, National Review Online)http://www.nationalreview.com/nrof_bartlett/bartlett050602.asp

Dynamic Scoring: Not So Fast!, by Rudolph Pennerhttp://www.taxpolicycenter.org/publications/template.cfm?PubID=9698

Greenspan Comments on Dynamic Scoring (testimony from 2002)http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=107_house_hearings&docid=f:81696.wais

Bernanke Comments on Dynamic Scoringhttp://www.taxfoundation.org/legacy/show/1462.html


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