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State Tax Conformity: Revenue Effects

Following the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the debate on tax reform has shifted from Washington, D.C., to all fifty states. States incorporate provisions of the federal tax codes into their own codes in varying degrees, meaning that federal tax reform has implications for state revenue.

Because the base-broadening provisions of the new federal tax law often flow through to states, while the corresponding rate reductions do not, most states will experience a revenue increase from federal tax reform – although several states could see decreases, largely due to the new federal pass-through provisions.

States are busy working to quantify the impact to their state budgets from the federal tax changes to ensure they have all the necessary information about their policy choices.

Below we have catalogued each state’s projected revenue impact of federal tax reform. We will update this page as new estimates are released.

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State Overview of Revenue Estimates Revenue Reports
*States have not released official reports, but revenue numbers have been reported in news articles.
**This estimate only includes the impact of the new international tax provisions.
Arizona* Increase in revenue of $236 million in fiscal year 2019. See Story
Colorado Increase in revenue of $196.5 million in fiscal year 2018-2019. Download
Georgia* Increase in revenue of $5.2 billion over five years. See Story
Idaho Increase in revenue of $97.4 million in fiscal year 2019. Download
Indiana Increase in revenue of $129 million in fiscal year 2019. Download
Iowa Increase in revenue of $188.3 million in fiscal year 2019. Download
Louisiana* Increase in revenue of $226 million in fiscal year 2019. See Story
Maine Increase in revenue of $312 million in fiscal year 2019. Download
Maryland Increase in revenue of $361 million in fiscal year 2019. Download
Massachusetts** Increase in revenue of $65 million in fiscal year 2019. See Story
Michigan Increase in revenue of $1.7 billion in fiscal year 2019. Download
Minnesota Increase in revenue of $416 million in fiscal year 2019. Download
Montana* Decrease in revenue of of $46 million in fiscal year 2018. Montana’s revenue projections have been disputed. See Story
Nebraska* Increase in revenue of $220 million this year. See Story
New York Increase in revenue of $1.1 billion in fiscal year 2019. Download
North Dakota* Decrease in revenue of $28.9 million in the 2019-21 biennium. Excluding the pass-through provision would result in a revenue increase. See Story
Oregon Decrease in revenue of $40 million in fiscal year 2019. Excluding the pass-through provision would result in an increase in revenue of $151 million. Download
Pennsylvania Increase in revenue of $340 million in fiscal year 2018-2019. Download
South Carolina Increase in revenue of $205 million in fiscal year 2018-2019. Download
Vermont Increase in revenue of $30 million in fiscal year 2019. Download
Washington Increase in revenue of $85 million in fiscal year 2018. Download
District of Columbia Increase in revenue of $51.9 million in fiscal year 2019. Download