We estimate the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would increase long-run GDP by 1.2 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $5 trillion over the next decade on a conventional basis.
11 min read
Our experts are providing the latest details and analysis of proposed federal tax policy changes.
16 min read
Senate Republicans have advanced legislation to extend many provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) alongside dozens of new provisions, following broadly similar legislation put forward by House Republicans.
8 min read
Congress is racing to pass the One Big Beautiful Tax Bill before the July 4 deadline. In this episode, Kyle Hulehan and Erica York break down what just happened over the weekend, what’s actually in the bill, and what comes next as the House and Senate try to reconcile their differences.
Summer has arrived, and states are beginning to implement policy changes that were enacted during this year’s legislative session (or that have delayed effective dates or are being phased in over time).
28 min read
The Senate’s version of the OBBB restores the benefit of avoiding the SALT deduction cap with PTETs for all pass-through businesses, while placing new limits on the extent of the workarounds.
6 min read
Rather than permanently expanding a complicated, nonneutral tax break, Congress should prioritize permanence for the most neutral and pro-growth policies like bonus depreciation and R&D expensing.
6 min read
Our preliminary analysis finds the tax provisions increase long-run GDP by 0.8 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $4.0 trillion from 2025 through 2034 on a conventional basis before added interest costs.
9 min read
From generous tax breaks to costly trade-offs, the House GOP’s One, Big, Beautiful Bill has a little of everything. It’s a sweeping attempt to extend key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act before they expire in 2026—but what’s actually in it?
Different taxes have different economic effects, so policymakers should always consider how tax revenue is raised and not just how much is raised.
4 min read
Developed countries raise tax revenue through individual income taxes, corporate income taxes, social insurance taxes, taxes on goods and services, and property taxes—the combination of which determines how distortionary or neutral a tax system is.
4 min read
For owners of pass-through businesses, the reconciliation package (1) raises the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap, (2) denies the benefit of pass-through entity-level taxes that had previously worked around the SALT cap for such pass-through businesses, and (3) increases the Section 199A deduction for qualifying pass-through entities.
4 min read
Letting the SALT cap slip further upwards would undercut the TCJA’s long-term legacy, worsening the fiscal outlook of the tax package and providing an unneeded benefit to higher earners.
4 min read
We break down the House GOP’s One, Big, Beautiful Bill—a sweeping tax package designed to extend key parts of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act before they expire in 2026.
According to the latest economic data from the US Census Bureau, the average per capita state and local tax burden is $7,109. However, collections vary widely by state, reflecting differences in tax rates and bases, natural resource endowments, the scale and scope of taxable economic activity in each state, and residents’ political preferences.
5 min read
Pairing permanent TCJA individual tax cuts with new limits on business SALT deductions would shrink the economy, reduce American incomes, and increase the federal budget deficit, undermining the policy goals of TCJA permanence.
3 min read
The economic literature overwhelmingly suggests that an income tax increase of this magnitude would negatively affect economic growth and opportunity in Rhode Island.
As Congress debates expensing and other policies impacting business investment, lawmakers should consider the importance of business investment in research and development (R&D) as a driver for economic growth. Recent studies suggest that the economic benefits of R&D spending are even greater than previously understood.
7 min read
Does your state have a small business exemption for machinery and equipment?
4 min read
President Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of entirely replacing the federal income tax with new tariffs. Recently, he has said that when tariff revenues come in, he will use them to replace or substantially cut income taxes for people making under $200,000.
8 min read