President Obama’s fiscal year 2015 budget proposes to increase taxes on individuals by over $820 billion and on businesses by about $500 billion, for a total of over $1.3 trillion in new taxes over the next ten years....
- The Tax Policy Blog
- It's the (Payroll) Holiday Season
It's the (Payroll) Holiday Season
This bill would make the tax code more complicated, more unstable from year to year, and more redistributive - all damaging to long term economic growth.
It is essentially the 2012 version of cash for clunkers. Economists claim that the payroll tax holiday would stimulate consumption spending, and it very well might in the short term. But just as cash for clunkers merely shifted car sales from the future into the present, this too will merely shift future consumption into 2012. We would basically be borrowing from ourselves and future generations.
The bill I'm referring to is the Senate Democrat's bill that combines a payroll tax holiday with a millionaire surtax, which was voted down last night. Republicans countered with a bill that pairs a more limited payroll tax holiday with a federal employee pay freeze among other measures, none of which nearly pays for the holiday. That doesn't mean there is a lack of bipartisan support for a payroll tax holiday, rather that politicians can't find a plausible way to pay for it. That's good; that means the budgeting process is working.
I've argued before that a stand-alone payroll tax holiday is a fairly bad idea as well, because without any other "pay fors", it must be deficit financed. And I need not remind anyone that the Greek model is not working.
We find ourselves in a logical box: Republicans and Democrats mostly agree that the deficit should come down pronto. As well, they've revealed in this debate a remarkable consensus that tax cuts are necessary to boost economic growth, and that is top priority. There is only one way to achieve both these goals: cut spending to pay for tax cuts. Here's hoping logic prevails.
Follow William McBride on Twitter @EconoWill
Buy this blogger a cup of coffee!
Join the Tax Foundation's fight for sound tax policy Go
About the Tax Policy Blog
The Tax Policy Blog is the official weblog of the Tax Foundation, a non-partisan, non-profit research organization that has monitored tax policy at the federal, state and local levels since 1937. Our economists welcome your feedback. If you would like to send an e-mail to the author of a blog post, please click on that person's name to locate his or her e-mail address or visit our staff page here.