We estimate that a new proposal to expand the EITC would reduce federal revenue by $1.8 trillion and decrease long-run GDP by 0.29 percent, while boosting labor force participation for low-income tax filers by 822,788 full-time equivalent jobs.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren introduced a 7 percent surtax on corporate profits called the “Real Corporate Profits Tax.” We estimate that this tax would reduce the incentive to invest in the United States, and result in a 1.9 percent smaller economy, a 3.3 percent smaller capital stock, and 1.5 percent lower wages. The surtax would raise $872 billion between 2020 and 2029 on a conventional basis and $476 billion on a dynamic basis. The tax would make the tax code more progressive, but it would fall on taxpayers in every income group.
In our new report, we explore the design implications of a carbon tax and provide estimates for revenue, economic, and distributional effects of three potential carbon tax and revenue recycling proposals. Each proposal faces different trade-offs and achieves different policy goals.
Full expensing is one of the most powerful pro-growth policies in terms of revenue forgone. Given that structures comprise a large share of the private capital stock, improving their tax treatment would end a large bias against investment in the tax code.
Policymakers will have to consider design options for accelerating NOL deductions to ensure the refunds are simple, provide targeted relief to struggling firms, and are consistent with long-run revenue needs.
Expensing for capital investments is a powerful tax policy for economic growth. But expensing can also help shift the economy to a more sustainable future through increased investment in new, less carbon-intensive technology. Expensing for capital investment would eliminate a tax bias against energy efficiency improvements that reduce operating costs but involve high upfront investments. It could also serve to accelerate the existing trend of movement towards more green energy power sources.
Policymakers should carefully analyze tax expenditures before categorizing one as a loophole—some tax expenditures are important structural elements of the tax code while others are unsound.