August 1, 2010 Effect of Expiration of Bush-Era Tax Cuts on Average Middle-Income Family, by State and Congressional District Print this page Subscribe Support our work Download Fiscal Fact No. 238 Fiscal Fact No. 238 Introduction This Tax Foundation Fiscal Fact analyzes the impact that the expiration of the so-called “Bush-era” tax cuts would have on the average middle-income family’s tax bill in each state and congressional district. Family circumstances such as income level, sources of income, marital status, number of children, housing status, and a myriad of other factors can affect federal income tax liability. And these factors can vary significantly across geographic locations. Because of these differences in family characteristics, how families are affected by the looming expiration of tax cuts that is set to take place on December 31 can also vary across geographic locations. For example, families with more children will face a bigger tax impact than families without children due to the child tax credit doubling, which was part of the tax cuts. Also, married families will be affected differently than single families due to the marriage penalty provisions that are due to return if the tax cuts are not extended. And obviously, savings from the tax rate cuts in the Bush tax cuts depend upon a tax return’s level of income, as well as the sources of that income (e.g., dividend and capital gains income versus wage income). For more information on the Bush-era tax cuts, visit the Tax Foundation’s “Bush-Era” Tax Cuts FAQ. Overview of Methodology By the term “average middle-income family,” we are referring to the average of the families in the middle 20 percent of the income distribution. This is different from the “average family,” which would have a much higher income level than the “average of the middle-income families,” given the skewed distribution of income. Technically, we analyze the difference between the average tax bill under both expiration and extension for the middle 20 percent of families within each state and congressional district. Note also that by using “family,” we have restricted the universe to those arrangements with two or more people. In other words, singles are excluded from this analysis, whereas any married couple family (with or without children), single parent family, or household with related people living together is included. A more detailed methodological summary is provided at the end of the report. Results The two tables below show how the “average middle-income family” for each state (Table 1) and congressional district (Table 2) would be affected by expiration of the Bush-era tax cuts in 2011. Congressional districts are organized by the alphabetic order of states and then the congressional district’s number. Note that in this report, we do not present the results under the proposed policies of President Obama, although in most circumstances, the “average middle-income” family would not see much difference between the president’s proposal and the scenario of Bush-era tax cuts extended. Technically, most families falling in the middle of the income distribution would see lower tax bills under the proposed policies in the president’s budget when compared to a mere extension of the Bush-era tax cuts for 2011 due to his proposed one-year extension of the Making Work Pay tax credit, which was labeled in the president’s budget as a “temporary economic recovery” measure. Those seeking to determine how a specific taxpayer would be affected should visit www.mytaxburden.org, which is an interactive tax calculator for 2011 that shows a tax return’s liability under three states of the world: (1) expiration of Bush tax cuts, (2) full extension of Bush tax cuts, and (3) tax policies outlined in President Obama’s F.Y. 2011 Budget. Table 1 Effect of Expiration of Bush-Era Tax Cuts on Average Middle-Income Family, by State (2011) State Federal Income Tax for Average Middle-Income Family in State in 2011 Tax Savings from Bush-Era Tax Cuts Being Extended Median Family Income Tax Cuts Expire Tax Cuts Extended United States $4,964 $3,423 $1,540 $63,366 Alabama 3,745 2,348 1,397 54,270 Alaska 7,766 5,807 1,959 79,541 Arizona 4,323 2,770 1,553 60,547 Arkansas 2,830 1,411 1,418 47,648 California 5,196 3,570 1,626 70,029 Colorado 6,124 4,483 1,641 70,164 Connecticut 8,654 6,752 1,903 85,344 Delaware 6,147 4,507 1,640 68,745 D.C. 5,999 4,762 1,237 66,722 Florida 4,070 2,641 1,428 57,455 Georgia 4,416 2,913 1,503 60,268 Hawaii 6,971 5,233 1,739 78,659 Idaho 3,516 1,947 1,569 54,695 Illinois 5,814 4,174 1,640 68,958 Indiana 4,481 2,946 1,535 59,380 Iowa 5,192 3,575 1,616 61,663 Kansas 5,062 3,516 1,546 62,462 Kentucky 3,495 2,079 1,415 51,729 Louisiana 3,708 2,302 1,405 53,963 Maine 4,095 2,678 1,416 57,719 Maryland 7,851 6,095 1,756 84,415 Massachusetts 8,096 6,264 1,831 81,569 Michigan 4,543 3,053 1,490 60,615 Minnesota 6,518 4,866 1,653 71,817 Mississippi 2,621 1,266 1,355 46,668 Missouri 4,395 2,884 1,510 58,088 Montana 4,183 2,727 1,456 56,820 Nebraska 5,090 3,461 1,629 62,067 Nevada 4,881 3,351 1,530 64,910 New Hampshire 7,160 5,462 1,698 76,710 New Jersey 8,246 6,386 1,860 85,761 New Mexico 3,487 2,054 1,433 52,172 New York 5,548 4,017 1,530 67,877 North Carolina 4,075 2,616 1,459 56,588 North Dakota 5,280 3,714 1,566 61,109 Ohio 4,675 3,178 1,497 60,061 Oklahoma 3,560 2,117 1,443 53,862 Oregon 4,895 3,285 1,610 61,190 Pennsylvania 5,259 3,731 1,528 63,316 Rhode Island 6,906 5,308 1,598 71,992 South Carolina 3,831 2,423 1,408 55,664 South Dakota 5,151 3,452 1,698 60,104 Tennessee 3,745 2,315 1,430 53,799 Texas 4,301 2,707 1,593 58,765 Utah 4,313 2,534 1,779 65,226 Vermont 5,000 3,448 1,552 63,438 Virginia 6,382 4,766 1,615 73,192 Washington 5,917 4,343 1,574 70,498 West Virginia 2,937 1,621 1,316 49,082 Wisconsin 5,446 3,929 1,518 65,622 Wyoming 5,467 3,810 1,657 66,504 Table 2 Effect of Expiration of Bush-Era Tax Cuts on Average Middle-Income Family, by Congressional District (2011) Cong. District Member (Party) Federal Income Tax for Average Middle-Income Family in State in 2011 Tax Savings from Bush-Era Tax Cuts Being Extended Median Family Income Tax Cuts Expire Tax Cuts Extended U.S. (U.S. Total) $4,964 $3,423 $1,540 $63,366 AL-1 Bonner (R) 3,376 2,006 1,370 52,442 AL-2 Bright (D) 3,541 2,070 1,471 53,076 AL-3 Rogers (R) 3,009 1,660 1,348 48,596 AL-4 Aderholt (R) 2,944 1,590 1,354 48,105 AL-5 Griffith (R) 4,922 3,371 1,551 61,118 AL-6 Bachus (R) 6,508 4,778 1,730 73,362 AL-7 Davis (D) 2,382 1,354 1,028 41,960 AK-0 Young (R) 7,766 5,807 1,959 79,541 AZ-1 Kirkpatrick (D) 3,203 1,786 1,417 49,348 AZ-2 Franks (R) 4,299 2,817 1,482 62,449 AZ-3 Shadegg (R) 6,575 4,861 1,713 73,169 AZ-4 Pastor (D) 1,080 -254 1,334 40,588 AZ-5 Mitchell (D) 8,123 6,205 1,919 80,056 AZ-6 Flake (R) 5,824 4,157 1,667 69,666 AZ-7 Grijalva (D) 2,229 916 1,313 45,317 AZ-8 Giffords (D) 5,034 3,441 1,593 66,274 AR-1 Berry (D) 2,115 754 1,361 41,495 AR-2 Snyder (D) 3,640 2,171 1,469 54,067 AR-3 Boozman (R) 3,408 1,858 1,550 51,218 AR-4 Ross (D) 2,221 954 1,267 45,403 CA-1 Thompson (D) 4,809 3,128 1,680 63,339 CA-2 Herger (R) 2,494 1,192 1,302 50,905 CA-3 Lungren (R) 5,615 3,837 1,778 76,473 CA-4 McClintock (R) 6,508 4,920 1,588 76,101 CA-5 Matsui (D) 3,407 2,061 1,346 52,827 CA-6 Woolsey (D) 8,827 6,831 1,997 89,755 CA-7 Miller (D) 5,952 4,423 1,529 74,277 CA-8 Pelosi (D) 9,483 7,462 2,021 88,313 CA-9 Lee (D) 5,560 4,054 1,506 72,663 CA-10 Garamendi (D) 10,271 7,833 2,438 97,503 CA-11 McNerney (D) 8,075 6,054 2,021 90,538 CA-12 Speier (D) 11,040 8,532 2,508 101,771 CA-13 Stark (D) 8,370 6,403 1,967 89,824 CA-14 Eshoo (D) 16,976 13,783 3,194 120,005 CA-15 Honda (D) 12,410 9,651 2,760 106,482 CA-16 Lofgren (D) 7,424 5,544 1,880 85,653 CA-17 Farr (D) 5,047 3,408 1,639 65,166 CA-18 Cardoza (D) 2,227 852 1,375 48,743 CA-19 Radanovich (R) 3,354 1,781 1,574 60,399 CA-20 Costa (D) 670 -459 1,130 34,983 CA-21 Nunes (R) 2,203 622 1,580 53,273 CA-22 McCarthy (R) 3,065 1,425 1,640 61,449 CA-23 Capps (D) 5,206 3,584 1,622 70,803 CA-24 Gallegly (R) 8,516 6,506 2,010 92,451 CA-25 McKeon (R) 5,002 3,325 1,677 69,408 CA-26 Dreier (R) 7,606 5,707 1,899 88,589 CA-27 Sherman (D) 4,524 2,957 1,567 65,315 CA-28 Berman (D) 3,094 1,739 1,355 52,697 CA-29 Schiff (D) 5,073 3,701 1,372 64,433 CA-30 Waxman (D) 13,249 10,397 2,852 120,192 CA-31 Becerra (D) 672 -626 1,298 35,419 CA-32 Chu (D) 2,950 1,393 1,558 58,727 CA-33 Watson (D) 2,656 1,297 1,359 50,411 CA-34 Roybal-Allard (D) 774 -901 1,675 41,211 CA-35 Waters (D) 1,502 47 1,455 46,097 CA-36 Harman (D) 8,602 6,647 1,956 80,009 CA-37 Richardson (D) 2,177 660 1,518 51,131 CA-38 Napolitano (D) 2,855 1,295 1,560 59,516 CA-39 Sánchez (D) 3,761 2,257 1,504 61,153 CA-40 Royce (R) 6,564 4,774 1,790 80,205 CA-41 Lewis (R) 3,052 1,555 1,497 60,327 CA-42 Miller (R) 9,819 7,524 2,295 102,106 CA-43 Baca (D) 2,581 936 1,645 52,322 CA-44 Calvert (R) 5,465 3,734 1,730 75,947 CA-45 Bono Mack (R) 3,036 1,539 1,497 59,870 CA-46 Rohrabacher (R) 10,035 7,781 2,255 95,064 CA-47 Sanchez (D) 2,433 874 1,558 53,180 CA-48 Campbell (R) 12,179 9,514 2,664 106,478 CA-49 Issa (R) 4,874 3,290 1,584 68,185 CA-50 Bilbray (R) 9,468 7,310 2,158 94,635 CA-51 Filner (D) 2,415 960 1,455 54,693 CA-52 Hunter (R) 6,673 4,967 1,706 78,379 CA-53 Davis (D) 5,028 3,538 1,491 61,853 CO-1 DeGette (D) 4,124 2,735 1,390 57,254 CO-2 Polis (D) 7,718 5,988 1,730 79,917 CO-3 Salazar (D) 4,250 2,681 1,569 57,869 CO-4 Markey (D) 5,863 4,197 1,665 65,851 CO-5 Lamborn (R) 5,617 4,037 1,579 67,089 CO-6 Coffman (R) 10,904 8,433 2,471 99,198 CO-7 Perlmutter (D) 4,898 3,489 1,409 62,525 CT-1 Larson (D) 7,694 5,947 1,747 78,712 CT-2 Courtney (D) 8,300 6,409 1,892 84,422 CT-3 DeLauro (D) 8,012 6,285 1,726 78,622 CT-4 Himes (D) 12,918 10,176 2,743 111,287 CT-5 Murphy (D) 8,060 6,241 1,818 82,516 DE-0 Castle (R) 6,147 4,507 1,640 68,745 DC-Del Norton (D) 5,999 4,762 1,237 66,722 FL-1 Miller (R) 4,328 2,840 1,487 55,697 FL-2 Boyd (D) 4,014 2,453 1,561 55,096 FL-3 Brown (D) 2,515 1,495 1,020 40,306 FL-4 Crenshaw (R) 6,055 4,417 1,638 69,966 FL-5 Brown-Waite (R) 3,232 1,705 1,527 52,405 FL-6 Stearns (R) 4,370 2,868 1,502 58,379 FL-7 Mica (R) 5,282 3,630 1,652 63,593 FL-8 Grayson (D) 4,171 2,686 1,485 58,373 FL-9 Bilirakis (R) 4,709 3,183 1,525 65,985 FL-10 Young (R) 4,260 2,940 1,320 58,044 FL-11 Castor (D) 3,721 2,436 1,285 45,897 FL-12 Putnam (R) 3,645 2,244 1,401 52,736 FL-13 Buchanan (R) 3,901 2,588 1,313 58,862 FL-14 Mack (R) 4,816 3,419 1,397 63,368 FL-15 Posey (R) 3,671 2,180 1,491 58,516 FL-16 Rooney (R) 3,293 1,976 1,317 55,810 FL-17 Meek (D) 2,139 989 1,150 44,159 FL-18 Ros-Lehtinen (R) 3,127 1,788 1,339 51,888 FL-19 Deutch (D) 4,860 3,403 1,457 62,371 FL-20 Wasserman Schultz (D) 5,767 4,131 1,637 72,122 FL-21 Diaz-Balart (R) 3,308 1,951 1,357 53,671 FL-22 Klein (D) 6,624 4,840 1,784 78,358 FL-23 Hastings (D) 2,953 1,862 1,091 44,391 FL-24 Kosmas (D) 4,552 3,084 1,468 63,350 FL-25 Diaz-Balart (R) 3,939 2,551 1,388 59,675 GA-1 Kingston (R) 3,288 1,810 1,478 52,030 GA-2 Bishop (D) 2,094 842 1,253 44,624 GA-3 Westmoreland (R) 3,598 1,815 1,783 64,644 GA-4 Johnson (D) 4,306 3,121 1,185 55,639 GA-5 Lewis (D) 5,592 4,236 1,357 66,099 GA-6 Price (R) 11,169 8,718 2,451 97,933 GA-7 Linder (R) 6,271 4,630 1,641 74,378 GA-8 Marshall (D) 4,095 2,766 1,329 52,588 GA-9 Graves (R) 3,363 1,732 1,631 57,128 GA-10 Broun (R) 3,624 2,218 1,406 53,406 GA-11 Gingrey (R) 4,127 2,505 1,622 62,031 GA-12 Barrow (D) 3,301 1,859 1,442 46,990 GA-13 Scott (D) 4,374 2,855 1,519 61,576 HI-1 Djou (R) 7,746 5,962 1,784 80,535 HI-2 Hirono (D) 6,272 4,529 1,743 76,927 ID-1 Minnick (D) 3,782 2,238 1,544 55,254 ID-2 Simpson (R) 3,209 1,610 1,598 54,075 IL-1 Rush (D) 3,300 1,999 1,301 53,432 IL-2 Jackson (D) 3,200 1,885 1,315 54,842 IL-3 Lipinski (D) 5,170 3,565 1,604 68,215 IL-4 Gutierrez (D) 2,321 963 1,358 44,497 IL-5 Quigley (D) 6,560 4,961 1,599 74,362 IL-6 Roskam (R) 8,737 6,764 1,972 81,789 IL-7 Davis (D) 4,287 2,705 1,582 59,934 IL-8 Bean (D) 8,532 6,630 1,902 87,181 IL-9 Schakowsky (D) 7,950 6,185 1,765 77,784 IL-10 Kirk (R) 10,311 7,830 2,480 103,849 IL-11 Halvorson (D) 6,225 4,458 1,767 70,461 IL-12 Costello (D) 3,672 2,280 1,392 54,473 IL-13 Biggert (R) 10,860 8,401 2,459 99,389 IL-14 Foster (D) 6,995 5,190 1,805 77,445 IL-15 Johnson (R) 5,373 3,674 1,699 61,612 IL-16 Manzullo (R) 6,517 4,826 1,691 69,303 IL-17 Hare (D) 3,681 2,307 1,374 52,105 IL-18 Schock (R) 5,153 3,582 1,571 65,371 IL-19 Shimkus (R) 4,694 3,215 1,479 61,094 IN-1 Visclosky (D) 4,690 3,144 1,546 64,092 IN-2 Donnelly (D) 3,708 2,277 1,431 54,351 IN-3 VACANT (?) 4,292 2,645 1,647 58,141 IN-4 Buyer (R) 5,160 3,561 1,599 65,974 IN-5 Burton (R) 7,337 5,547 1,790 74,478 IN-6 Pence (R) 3,826 2,359 1,467 54,841 IN-7 Carson (D) 3,477 2,166 1,310 47,745 IN-8 Ellsworth (D) 3,956 2,493 1,463 55,627 IN-9 Hill (D) 4,244 2,854 1,390 56,383 IA-1 Braley (D) 4,855 3,295 1,560 60,614 IA-2 Loebsack (D) 5,962 4,339 1,623 63,639 IA-3 Boswell (D) 6,212 4,573 1,639 68,412 IA-4 Latham (R) 4,742 3,188 1,554 60,632 IA-5 King (R) 4,880 3,143 1,737 56,353 KS-1 Moran (R) 3,796 2,288 1,508 55,126 KS-2 Jenkins (R) 4,181 2,715 1,466 58,345 KS-3 Moore (D) 8,852 6,933 1,918 81,421 KS-4 Tiahrt (R) 4,720 3,011 1,709 60,229 KY-1 Whitfield (R) 2,119 837 1,282 45,531 KY-2 Guthrie (R) 3,720 2,259 1,461 51,874 KY-3 Yarmuth (D) 5,122 3,559 1,563 61,703 KY-4 Davis (R) 5,039 3,287 1,753 60,419 KY-5 Rogers (R) 812 -201 1,013 35,180 KY-6 Chandler (D) 5,137 3,467 1,669 60,499 LA-1 Scalise (R) 4,821 3,322 1,499 62,259 LA-2 Cao (R) 3,468 2,294 1,175 50,066 LA-3 Melancon (D) 3,803 2,399 1,404 55,776 LA-4 Fleming (R) 2,825 1,403 1,422 48,944 LA-5 Alexander (R) 2,610 1,209 1,402 46,890 LA-6 Cassidy (R) 4,748 3,322 1,426 60,522 LA-7 Boustany (R) 3,545 2,150 1,395 53,193 ME-1 Pingree (D) 5,303 3,782 1,521 65,143 ME-2 Michaud (D) 3,160 1,877 1,283 51,370 MD-1 Kratovil (D) 7,585 5,846 1,739 83,458 MD-2 Ruppersberger (D) 5,855 4,387 1,469 69,364 MD-3 Sarbanes (D) 8,216 6,417 1,799 86,513 MD-4 Edwards (D) 8,806 6,870 1,936 86,257 MD-5 Hoyer (D) 9,487 7,449 2,038 94,899 MD-6 Bartlett (R) 7,069 5,453 1,616 79,670 MD-7 Cummings (D) 5,541 4,179 1,361 67,233 MD-8 Van Hollen (D) 14,221 11,445 2,776 112,243 MA-1 Olver (D) 5,753 4,239 1,514 69,498 MA-2 Neal (D) 6,430 4,844 1,586 72,549 MA-3 McGovern (D) 7,592 5,785 1,807 80,474 MA-4 Frank (D) 9,125 7,171 1,954 85,241 MA-5 Tsongas (D) 9,048 6,889 2,159 88,788 MA-6 Tierney (D) 9,966 7,698 2,268 93,951 MA-7 Markey (D) 9,574 7,494 2,080 89,671 MA-8 Capuano (D) 4,817 3,339 1,477 59,154 MA-9 Lynch (D) 9,148 7,238 1,910 88,677 MA-10 Delahunt (D) 9,760 7,496 2,264 85,242 MI-1 Stupak (D) 2,804 1,502 1,302 49,435 MI-2 Hoekstra (R) 4,005 2,487 1,518 56,391 MI-3 Ehlers (R) 4,274 2,707 1,567 61,557 MI-4 Camp (R) 3,266 1,932 1,334 52,487 MI-5 Kildee (D) 3,254 1,877 1,377 52,826 MI-6 Upton (R) 4,235 2,801 1,434 56,102 MI-7 Schauer (D) 5,002 3,400 1,602 61,291 MI-8 Rogers (R) 6,922 5,196 1,726 73,045 MI-9 Peters (D) 10,101 7,984 2,117 93,615 MI-10 Miller (R) 5,724 4,046 1,678 68,568 MI-11 McCotter (R) 8,066 6,246 1,820 80,515 MI-12 Levin (D) 4,857 3,529 1,329 61,167 MI-13 Kilpatrick (D) 460 -566 1,026 36,587 MI-14 Conyers (D) 2,125 997 1,128 42,708 MI-15 Dingell (D) 5,503 3,991 1,512 67,189 MN-1 Walz (DFL) 5,278 3,661 1,617 64,564 MN-2 Kline (R) 9,408 7,384 2,023 86,364 MN-3 Paulsen (R) 10,323 8,124 2,198 94,486 MN-4 McCollum (DFL) 7,213 5,559 1,655 73,316 MN-5 Ellison (DFL) 5,593 4,286 1,307 67,694 MN-6 Bachmann (R) 8,019 5,971 2,049 80,007 MN-7 Peterson (DFL) 4,225 2,750 1,475 57,359 MN-8 Oberstar (DFL) 4,317 2,812 1,505 57,874 MS-1 Childers (D) 2,439 1,098 1,341 47,388 MS-2 Thompson (D) 1,530 393 1,137 37,471 MS-3 Harper (R) 2,905 1,446 1,460 48,788 MS-4 Taylor (D) 3,847 2,291 1,556 51,904 MO-1 Clay (D) 3,434 2,079 1,355 52,512 MO-2 Akin (R) 10,167 8,058 2,108 88,802 MO-3 Carnahan (D) 5,510 4,067 1,443 66,735 MO-4 Skelton (D) 3,654 2,145 1,509 51,614 MO-5 Cleaver (D) 4,451 2,930 1,521 59,762 MO-6 Graves (R) 4,907 3,419 1,488 62,006 MO-7 Blunt (R) 3,018 1,511 1,507 51,516 MO-8 Emerson (R) 1,965 589 1,376 42,562 MO-9 Luetkemeyer (R) 4,456 2,903 1,552 55,467 MT-0 Rehberg (R) 4,183 2,727 1,456 56,820 NE-1 Fortenberry (R) 5,378 3,697 1,681 63,806 NE-2 Terry (R) 5,555 4,041 1,513 69,312 NE-3 Smith (R) 4,355 2,716 1,639 54,285 NV-1 Berkley (D) 3,584 2,121 1,463 57,365 NV-2 Heller (R) 5,167 3,637 1,529 66,009 NV-3 Titus (D) 5,934 4,314 1,620 70,666 NH-1 Shea-Porter (D) 7,125 5,420 1,705 78,450 NH-2 Hodes (D) 6,894 5,250 1,644 75,654 NJ-1 Andrews (D) 6,633 5,038 1,594 74,542 NJ-2 LoBiondo (R) 5,420 3,901 1,519 68,022 NJ-3 Adler (D) 8,281 6,481 1,800 86,437 NJ-4 Smith (R) 7,828 6,033 1,795 85,896 NJ-5 Garrett (R) 12,508 9,844 2,665 106,871 NJ-6 Pallone (D) 8,630 6,768 1,862 84,452 NJ-7 Lance (R) 12,817 10,091 2,727 113,719 NJ-8 Pascrell (D) 6,433 4,810 1,624 77,339 NJ-9 Rothman (D) 7,878 6,147 1,731 82,070 NJ-10 Payne (D) 4,941 3,570 1,371 57,600 NJ-11 Frelinghuysen (R) 14,791 11,804 2,987 116,909 NJ-12 Holt (D) 12,657 9,928 2,729 108,162 NJ-13 Sires (D) 3,610 2,307 1,303 52,539 NM-1 Heinrich (D) 4,893 3,301 1,592 59,620 NM-2 Teague (D) 1,994 615 1,378 44,082 NM-3 Luján (D) 3,763 2,337 1,426 55,040 NY-1 Bishop (D) 9,439 7,370 2,069 96,190 NY-2 Israel (D) 10,058 7,851 2,208 103,009 NY-3 King (R) 11,559 9,262 2,297 106,893 NY-4 McCarthy (D) 9,763 7,671 2,092 102,050 NY-5 Ackerman (D) 6,973 5,238 1,736 76,812 NY-6 Meeks (D) 5,030 3,542 1,488 63,396 NY-7 Crowley (D) 3,317 1,850 1,467 54,673 NY-8 Nadler (D) 5,910 4,360 1,550 65,121 NY-9 Weiner (D) 5,851 4,121 1,730 70,719 NY-10 Towns (D) 3,088 1,712 1,375 47,302 NY-11 Clarke (D) 3,418 2,134 1,285 51,625 NY-12 Velázquez (D) 2,605 1,267 1,338 44,078 NY-13 McMahon (D) 6,846 5,188 1,658 76,694 NY-14 Maloney (D) 15,042 11,976 3,066 111,717 NY-15 Rangel (D) 2,105 902 1,204 42,585 NY-16 Serrano (D) -1,122 -1,939 816 25,359 NY-17 Engel (D) 5,616 4,087 1,530 66,833 NY-18 Lowey (D) 10,925 8,728 2,198 107,608 NY-19 Hall (D) 9,700 7,585 2,115 99,089 NY-20 Murphy (D) 5,691 4,119 1,572 68,119 NY-21 Tonko (D) 5,834 4,224 1,610 69,219 NY-22 Hinchey (D) 4,834 3,423 1,411 63,050 NY-23 Owens (D) 3,552 2,021 1,532 54,248 NY-24 Arcuri (D) 4,352 2,886 1,466 57,049 NY-25 Maffei (D) 5,897 4,352 1,544 69,169 NY-26 Lee (R) 5,805 4,305 1,500 70,497 NY-27 Higgins (D) 4,112 2,713 1,399 58,430 NY-28 Slaughter (D) 2,914 1,694 1,220 50,364 NY-29 VACANT (?) 4,594 3,074 1,520 61,683 NC-1 Butterfield (D) 2,609 1,453 1,157 41,892 NC-2 Etheridge (D) 3,903 2,427 1,477 53,681 NC-3 Jones (R) 3,980 2,295 1,684 59,551 NC-4 Price (D) 8,362 6,519 1,843 86,876 NC-5 Foxx (R) 3,648 2,285 1,363 55,624 NC-6 Coble (R) 3,979 2,356 1,623 60,106 NC-7 McIntyre (D) 3,216 1,845 1,371 51,634 NC-8 Kissell (D) 3,552 2,282 1,270 51,617 NC-9 Myrick (R) 7,227 5,482 1,745 78,422 NC-10 McHenry (R) 3,458 2,077 1,382 51,281 NC-11 Shuler (D) 3,170 1,817 1,353 50,003 NC-12 Watt (D) 3,515 2,192 1,323 48,251 NC-13 Miller (D) 4,642 3,283 1,359 57,064 ND-0 Pomeroy (D) 5,280 3,714 1,566 61,109 OH-1 Driehaus (D) 4,950 3,476 1,474 61,352 OH-2 Schmidt (R) 6,181 4,537 1,644 70,834 OH-3 Turner (R) 4,884 3,388 1,497 60,469 OH-4 Jordan (R) 3,961 2,432 1,529 56,131 OH-5 Latta (R) 4,667 3,173 1,494 57,965 OH-6 Wilson (D) 3,150 1,752 1,398 51,088 OH-7 Austria (R) 4,735 3,323 1,412 60,443 OH-8 Boehner (R) 4,649 3,150 1,499 60,876 OH-9 Kaptur (D) 4,242 2,786 1,456 58,008 OH-10 Kucinich (D) 4,605 3,255 1,350 60,355 OH-11 Fudge (D) 2,538 1,255 1,283 47,414 OH-12 Tiberi (R) 6,999 5,345 1,654 75,009 OH-13 Sutton (D) 5,323 3,782 1,541 63,269 OH-14 LaTourette (R) 6,225 4,636 1,589 73,152 OH-15 Kilroy (D) 5,756 4,062 1,694 67,176 OH-16 Boccieri (D) 4,821 3,351 1,470 60,004 OH-17 Ryan (D) 3,933 2,537 1,396 53,117 OH-18 Space (D) 2,749 1,319 1,430 48,842 OK-1 Sullivan (R) 4,805 3,318 1,487 61,239 OK-2 Boren (D) 2,194 921 1,273 44,753 OK-3 Lucas (R) 3,522 2,066 1,456 54,319 OK-4 Cole (R) 3,855 2,325 1,530 56,830 OK-5 Fallin (R) 3,646 2,316 1,330 53,868 OR-1 Wu (D) 6,902 5,174 1,728 75,887 OR-2 Walden (R) 3,696 2,186 1,509 52,740 OR-3 Blumenauer (D) 5,491 3,868 1,623 65,013 OR-4 DeFazio (D) 3,432 2,070 1,362 53,372 OR-5 Schrader (D) 4,858 3,224 1,635 64,210 PA-1 Brady (D) 1,603 568 1,035 38,518 PA-2 Fattah (D) 2,553 1,418 1,135 47,099 PA-3 Dahlkemper (D) 4,381 2,948 1,433 55,352 PA-4 Altmire (D) 5,946 4,314 1,631 69,099 PA-5 Thompson (R) 3,331 1,882 1,449 50,364 PA-6 Gerlach (R) 9,133 7,123 2,010 87,214 PA-7 Sestak (D) 9,763 7,490 2,273 94,420 PA-8 Murphy (D) 9,741 7,721 2,020 91,182 PA-9 Shuster (R) 3,835 2,385 1,450 53,105 PA-10 Carney (D) 4,052 2,488 1,564 55,028 PA-11 Kanjorski (D) 4,011 2,588 1,423 54,619 PA-12 Critz (D) 3,366 2,038 1,328 49,636 PA-13 Schwartz (D) 7,205 5,459 1,746 78,729 PA-14 Doyle (D) 3,991 2,709 1,283 52,570 PA-15 Dent (R) 6,368 4,617 1,751 70,201 PA-16 Pitts (R) 5,854 4,146 1,708 67,997 PA-17 Holden (D) 5,244 3,771 1,474 62,606 PA-18 Murphy (R) 6,043 4,406 1,637 71,682 PA-19 Platts (R) 6,099 4,567 1,532 69,963 RI-1 Kennedy (D) 6,424 4,873 1,551 71,186 RI-2 Langevin (D) 7,457 5,827 1,630 72,797 SC-1 Brown (R) 4,310 2,828 1,482 61,876 SC-2 Wilson (R) 5,107 3,567 1,539 65,730 SC-3 Barrett (R) 2,929 1,611 1,318 52,705 SC-4 Inglis (R) 4,294 2,918 1,376 58,733 SC-5 Spratt (D) 3,843 2,308 1,535 51,524 SC-6 Clyburn (D) 2,674 1,581 1,093 43,670 SD-0 Herseth Sandlin (D) 5,151 3,452 1,698 60,104 TN-1 Roe (R) 2,864 1,470 1,394 46,510 TN-2 Duncan (R) 4,711 3,244 1,467 58,024 TN-3 Wamp (R) 3,383 2,051 1,332 52,868 TN-4 Davis (D) 2,707 1,246 1,461 44,907 TN-5 Cooper (D) 4,663 3,191 1,472 60,053 TN-6 Gordon (D) 4,097 2,613 1,484 56,775 TN-7 Blackburn (R) 6,367 4,570 1,797 72,889 TN-8 Tanner (D) 2,942 1,629 1,313 47,339 TN-9 Cohen (D) 2,885 1,621 1,264 46,552 TX-1 Gohmert (R) 3,578 1,969 1,609 51,938 TX-2 Poe (R) 5,918 4,137 1,781 70,820 TX-3 Johnson (R) 8,193 6,298 1,895 82,041 TX-4 Hall (R) 4,154 2,648 1,506 59,760 TX-5 Hensarling (R) 4,294 2,796 1,498 58,082 TX-6 Barton (R) 5,131 3,506 1,625 65,456 TX-7 Culberson (R) 8,194 5,826 2,368 93,273 TX-8 Brady (R) 5,340 3,578 1,762 64,507 TX-9 Green (D) 3,000 1,782 1,218 42,236 TX-10 McCaul (R) 6,998 5,315 1,683 75,721 TX-11 Conaway (R) 4,123 2,495 1,628 55,247 TX-12 Granger (R) 5,197 3,552 1,644 63,282 TX-13 Thornberry (R) 3,869 2,356 1,513 54,887 TX-14 Paul (R) 6,037 4,291 1,746 68,130 TX-15 Hinojosa (D) 1,018 -373 1,391 37,448 TX-16 Reyes (D) 1,502 -79 1,581 41,880 TX-17 Edwards (D) 4,231 2,601 1,630 57,203 TX-18 Jackson-Lee (D) 2,585 1,203 1,382 43,780 TX-19 Neugebauer (R) 3,384 1,916 1,468 52,055 TX-20 Gonzalez (D) 2,554 1,084 1,470 44,554 TX-21 Smith (R) 7,400 5,558 1,842 76,406 TX-22 Olson (R) 7,910 5,915 1,995 81,808 TX-23 Rodriguez (D) 2,990 1,499 1,492 51,144 TX-24 Marchant (R) 6,886 5,097 1,789 76,834 TX-25 Doggett (D) 2,248 275 1,973 61,043 TX-26 Burgess (R) 7,765 5,865 1,900 77,894 TX-27 Ortiz (D) 1,744 298 1,446 44,623 TX-28 Cuellar (D) 2,370 1,180 1,189 41,357 TX-29 Green (D) 2,362 950 1,412 40,669 TX-30 Johnson (D) 1,322 -6 1,328 38,546 TX-31 Carter (R) 5,349 3,689 1,660 65,694 TX-32 Sessions (R) 3,511 1,919 1,592 54,898 UT-1 Bishop (R) 4,249 2,500 1,749 63,778 UT-2 Matheson (D) 4,811 2,972 1,839 67,623 UT-3 Chaffetz (R) 4,021 2,251 1,770 64,216 VT-0 Welch (D) 5,000 3,448 1,552 63,438 VA-1 Wittman (R) 7,170 5,421 1,749 80,132 VA-2 Nye (D) 5,861 4,183 1,679 70,651 VA-3 Scott (D) 3,400 2,173 1,228 50,811 VA-4 Forbes (R) 5,448 3,957 1,491 67,929 VA-5 Perriello (D) 3,291 1,935 1,356 53,097 VA-6 Goodlatte (R) 4,296 2,830 1,466 59,042 VA-7 Cantor (R) 7,090 5,389 1,701 80,514 VA-8 Moran (D) 15,048 12,152 2,895 111,455 VA-9 Boucher (D) 2,221 1,012 1,209 45,863 VA-10 Wolf (R) 13,344 10,459 2,885 108,760 VA-11 Connolly (D) 15,473 12,292 3,180 120,135 WA-1 Inslee (D) 9,887 7,717 2,170 90,991 WA-2 Larsen (D) 5,246 3,751 1,495 66,969 WA-3 Baird (D) 4,773 3,283 1,490 65,092 WA-4 Hastings (R) 3,091 1,647 1,445 52,971 WA-5 McMorris Rodgers (R) 4,597 2,949 1,648 58,617 WA-6 Dicks (D) 4,485 3,021 1,465 60,191 WA-7 McDermott (D) 8,799 6,917 1,882 85,499 WA-8 Reichert (R) 10,255 8,002 2,253 94,846 WA-9 Smith (D) 5,862 4,242 1,620 69,591 WV-1 Mollohan (D) 3,573 2,275 1,298 51,319 WV-2 Capito (R) 4,101 2,608 1,493 54,409 WV-3 Rahall (D) 1,519 410 1,110 42,140 WI-1 Ryan (R) 6,470 4,780 1,689 72,329 WI-2 Baldwin (D) 7,230 5,565 1,666 74,898 WI-3 Kind (D) 4,964 3,358 1,606 61,933 WI-4 Moore (D) 2,210 1,013 1,197 45,998 WI-5 Sensenbrenner (R) 8,882 6,966 1,916 85,336 WI-6 Petri (R) 5,023 3,518 1,506 63,986 WI-7 Obey (D) 4,301 2,842 1,460 57,390 WI-8 Kagen (D) 5,040 3,588 1,452 61,133 WY-0 Lummis (R) 5,467 3,810 1,657 66,504 To see the data above by congressional district ranked by tax savings (in both dollar amounts and as a percentage of income), click here. Methodology The term “Bush-era tax cuts” refers to the series of tax cuts put in place between 2001 and 2006 that are set to sunset this year. In both scenarios, we assume a patch for the alternative minimum tax (AMT) and an extension of the standard deduction for real estate taxes paid. The source of the income data is the 2008 American Community Survey PUMS file. Congressional districts for each record were imputed using each record’s PUMA. Those records in a PUMA containing more than one congressional district were split and weighted based upon the share of total population for that PUMA that resides in each congressional district. This “crosswalk” came from the University of Missouri’s “Missouri Data Center” and its MABLE/Geocorr2K project. Imputations for capital gains, dividends and various itemized deductions for each record were also performed using a combination of IRS summary data and IRS microdata. Due to the weak economy between 2008 and 2011, we felt it was unnecessary to grow the records’ income variables. We then identify which families (i.e., arrangements with two or more persons as defined by Census) are in the middle 20 percent (based upon family income as defined by the Census) within each state and congressional district. Each record was then run through a tax microsimulation calculator for both scenarios (Bush extended and Bush expire) for 2011, and following aggregation, producing an average effective tax rate for the middle 20 percent within each state and congressional district under both scenarios. Finally, we apply these average effective tax rates to the actual median family income for each state and congressional district per summary data from the 2008 American Community Survey. Topics Center for Federal Tax Policy Center for State Tax Policy Data Individual and Consumption Taxes Individual Income and Payroll Taxes Research Tags George W. Bush
