Erica York is Vice President of Federal Tax Policy with Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy. She previously worked as an auditor at a large community bank in Kansas and interned at Tax Foundation’s Center for State Tax Policy.
Her analysis has been featured in The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Politico, and other national and international media outlets. She holds a master’s degree in Economics from Wichita State University and an undergraduate degree in Business Administration and Economics from Sterling (KS) College, where she is currently an adjunct professor. Erica lives in Kansas with her husband and their two children.
Thought the Trump administration has not yet imposed new, industry-specific tariffs on drugs or active pharmaceutical ingredients, such tariffs would be a hidden cost on Americans: they would shrink incomes, reduce investment, and lead to less innovation.
7 min read
The total amount refunded as of the first week of reporting is running ahead of past filing season at $19.95 billion, while the average refund is up 10.9 percent at $2,290.
3 min read
The tariffs now in effect threaten to offset much of the GDP growth from the tax cuts, while falling short of paying for them.
3 min read
Last Friday, the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs in a landmark 6-3 decision.
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
51 min read
The Supreme Court ruling against the IEEPA tariffs provides immediate relief to US businesses and workers and is a welcome rebuke of President Trump’s overreach of executive authority to unilaterally impose significant tax hikes on the US economy.
6 min read
Near-term corporate tax payments may fall, and financial statement data may appear unusual, but over time, revenues will stabilize, book-tax gaps will fade, and the US tax code will incentivize domestic investment.
8 min read
Our analysis of the major tax provisions included in the OBBBA finds it will increase long-run GDP by 0.7 percent. The major tax provisions will reduce federal tax revenue by nearly $5.2 trillion between 2025 and 2034, on a conventional basis.
12 min read
When taxpayers file their 2025 tax returns in 2026, many will see larger refunds than in recent years. That’s due to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which reduced individual income taxes for 2025 by an estimated $129 billion.
4 min read
In this episode, we break down what the OBBBA did, walk through our projections, and zoom out to other defining fights of 2025: Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, the Supreme Court challenge over presidential tariff power, and the growing wave of property tax revolts across the states.
Many policies, such as minimum wage levels, tax brackets, and means-tested public benefit income thresholds, are denominated in nominal dollars, even though a dollar in one region may go much further than a dollar in another. Lawmakers should keep that reality in mind as they make changes to tax and economic policies.
6 min read
Since April, the tariffs that have been implemented in practice are mostly, but not exclusively, lower than what was originally threatened.
5 min read
Under nearly any design option, sending out $2,000 payments to Americans would increase, not decrease, the federal budget deficit. A better way to provide relief from the burden of tariffs would be to eliminate the tariffs.
4 min read
Several political leaders, including the White House, have touted the OBBBA as the “largest tax cut in American history.” While significant, the OBBBA is not the largest tax cut in American history; it’s the sixth largest.
3 min read
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act contains several key policies that will affect how many taxpayers itemize, and how itemizers may benefit from deducting charitable donations.
4 min read
The US Supreme Court heard oral arguments on November 5 to determine whether the president’s emergency powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) include the power to impose tariffs.
6 min read
In this episode of The Deduction, we unpack Trump’s tariffs as they head to the Supreme Court. We break down scenarios if the Court upholds or strikes the tariffs, who really pays, and how Congress might respond—your concise guide to tariffs and the Supreme Court.
The Supreme Court is deciding a case over whether the President can impose sweeping tax increases on imported goods. It’s a multi-trillion-dollar question with enormous implications for the US economy, taxpayers, and limitations on emergency powers.
5 min read
Trump’s 2025 tariffs will hit nearly three-quarters of US food imports, raising prices on products that are often difficult or impossible to produce domestically. Senator Hawley has proposed a rebate program to return some of the revenue to households—but would it actually help?
President Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law on July 4, 2025.
18 min read