Effect of Expiration of Bush-Era Tax Cuts on Average Middle-Income Family, by State and Congressional District

 
 
August 01, 2010

Fiscal Fact No. 238

Introduction

This Tax Foundation Fiscal Fact analyzes the impact that the expiration of the so-called "Bush-era" tax cuts would have on the average middle-income family's tax bill in each state and congressional district. Family circumstances such as income level, sources of income, marital status, number of children, housing status, and a myriad of other factors can affect federal income tax liability. And these factors can vary significantly across geographic locations.

Because of these differences in family characteristics, how families are affected by the looming expiration of tax cuts that is set to take place on December 31 can also vary across geographic locations. For example, families with more children will face a bigger tax impact than families without children due to the child tax credit doubling, which was part of the tax cuts. Also, married families will be affected differently than single families due to the marriage penalty provisions that are due to return if the tax cuts are not extended. And obviously, savings from the tax rate cuts in the Bush tax cuts depend upon a tax return's level of income, as well as the sources of that income (e.g., dividend and capital gains income versus wage income).

For more information on the Bush-era tax cuts, visit the Tax Foundation's "Bush-Era" Tax Cuts FAQ.

Overview of Methodology

By the term "average middle-income family," we are referring to the average of the families in the middle 20 percent of the income distribution. This is different from the "average family," which would have a much higher income level than the "average of the middle-income families," given the skewed distribution of income.

Technically, we analyze the difference between the average tax bill under both expiration and extension for the middle 20 percent of families within each state and congressional district. Note also that by using "family," we have restricted the universe to those arrangements with two or more people. In other words, singles are excluded from this analysis, whereas any married couple family (with or without children), single parent family, or household with related people living together is included. A more detailed methodological summary is provided at the end of the report.

Results

The two tables below show how the "average middle-income family" for each state (Table 1) and congressional district (Table 2) would be affected by expiration of the Bush-era tax cuts in 2011. Congressional districts are organized by the alphabetic order of states and then the congressional district's number.

Note that in this report, we do not present the results under the proposed policies of President Obama, although in most circumstances, the "average middle-income" family would not see much difference between the president's proposal and the scenario of Bush-era tax cuts extended. Technically, most families falling in the middle of the income distribution would see lower tax bills under the proposed policies in the president's budget when compared to a mere extension of the Bush-era tax cuts for 2011 due to his proposed one-year extension of the Making Work Pay tax credit, which was labeled in the president's budget as a "temporary economic recovery" measure.

Those seeking to determine how a specific taxpayer would be affected should visit www.mytaxburden.org, which is an interactive tax calculator for 2011 that shows a tax return's liability under three states of the world: (1) expiration of Bush tax cuts, (2) full extension of Bush tax cuts, and (3) tax policies outlined in President Obama's F.Y. 2011 Budget.

Table 1
Effect of Expiration of Bush-Era Tax Cuts on Average Middle-Income Family, by State (2011)

State

Federal Income Tax for Average Middle-Income Family in State in 2011

Tax Savings from Bush-Era Tax Cuts Being Extended

Median Family Income

Tax Cuts
Expire

Tax Cuts Extended

United States

$4,964

$3,423

$1,540

$63,366

Alabama

3,745

2,348

1,397

54,270

Alaska

7,766

5,807

1,959

79,541

Arizona

4,323

2,770

1,553

60,547

Arkansas

2,830

1,411

1,418

47,648

California

5,196

3,570

1,626

70,029

Colorado

6,124

4,483

1,641

70,164

Connecticut

8,654

6,752

1,903

85,344

Delaware

6,147

4,507

1,640

68,745

D.C.

5,999

4,762

1,237

66,722

Florida

4,070

2,641

1,428

57,455

Georgia

4,416

2,913

1,503

60,268

Hawaii

6,971

5,233

1,739

78,659

Idaho

3,516

1,947

1,569

54,695

Illinois

5,814

4,174

1,640

68,958

Indiana

4,481

2,946

1,535

59,380

Iowa

5,192

3,575

1,616

61,663

Kansas

5,062

3,516

1,546

62,462

Kentucky

3,495

2,079

1,415

51,729

Louisiana

3,708

2,302

1,405

53,963

Maine

4,095

2,678

1,416

57,719

Maryland

7,851

6,095

1,756

84,415

Massachusetts

8,096

6,264

1,831

81,569

Michigan

4,543

3,053

1,490

60,615

Minnesota

6,518

4,866

1,653

71,817

Mississippi

2,621

1,266

1,355

46,668

Missouri

4,395

2,884

1,510

58,088

Montana

4,183

2,727

1,456

56,820

Nebraska

5,090

3,461

1,629

62,067

Nevada

4,881

3,351

1,530

64,910

New Hampshire

7,160

5,462

1,698

76,710

New Jersey

8,246

6,386

1,860

85,761

New Mexico

3,487

2,054

1,433

52,172

New York

5,548

4,017

1,530

67,877

North Carolina

4,075

2,616

1,459

56,588

North Dakota

5,280

3,714

1,566

61,109

Ohio

4,675

3,178

1,497

60,061

Oklahoma

3,560

2,117

1,443

53,862

Oregon

4,895

3,285

1,610

61,190

Pennsylvania

5,259

3,731

1,528

63,316

Rhode Island

6,906

5,308

1,598

71,992

South Carolina

3,831

2,423

1,408

55,664

South Dakota

5,151

3,452

1,698

60,104

Tennessee

3,745

2,315

1,430

53,799

Texas

4,301

2,707

1,593

58,765

Utah

4,313

2,534

1,779

65,226

Vermont

5,000

3,448

1,552

63,438

Virginia

6,382

4,766

1,615

73,192

Washington

5,917

4,343

1,574

70,498

West Virginia

2,937

1,621

1,316

49,082

Wisconsin

5,446

3,929

1,518

65,622

Wyoming

5,467

3,810

1,657

66,504

Table 2
Effect of Expiration of Bush-Era Tax Cuts on Average Middle-Income Family, by Congressional District (2011)

Cong. District

Member (Party)

Federal Income Tax for Average Middle-Income Family in State in 2011

Tax Savings from Bush-Era Tax Cuts Being Extended

Median Family Income

Tax Cuts Expire

Tax Cuts Extended

U.S.

(U.S. Total)

$4,964

$3,423

$1,540

$63,366

AL-1

Bonner (R)

3,376

2,006

1,370

52,442

AL-2

Bright (D)

3,541

2,070

1,471

53,076

AL-3

Rogers (R)

3,009

1,660

1,348

48,596

AL-4

Aderholt (R)

2,944

1,590

1,354

48,105

AL-5

Griffith (R)

4,922

3,371

1,551

61,118

AL-6

Bachus (R)

6,508

4,778

1,730

73,362

AL-7

Davis (D)

2,382

1,354

1,028

41,960

AK-0

Young (R)

7,766

5,807

1,959

79,541

AZ-1

Kirkpatrick (D)

3,203

1,786

1,417

49,348

AZ-2

Franks (R)

4,299

2,817

1,482

62,449

AZ-3

Shadegg (R)

6,575

4,861

1,713

73,169

AZ-4

Pastor (D)

1,080

-254

1,334

40,588

AZ-5

Mitchell (D)

8,123

6,205

1,919

80,056

AZ-6

Flake (R)

5,824

4,157

1,667

69,666

AZ-7

Grijalva (D)

2,229

916

1,313

45,317

AZ-8

Giffords (D)

5,034

3,441

1,593

66,274

AR-1

Berry (D)

2,115

754

1,361

41,495

AR-2

Snyder (D)

3,640

2,171

1,469

54,067

AR-3

Boozman (R)

3,408

1,858

1,550

51,218

AR-4

Ross (D)

2,221

954

1,267

45,403

CA-1

Thompson (D)

4,809

3,128

1,680

63,339

CA-2

Herger (R)

2,494

1,192

1,302

50,905

CA-3

Lungren (R)

5,615

3,837

1,778

76,473

CA-4

McClintock (R)

6,508

4,920

1,588

76,101

CA-5

Matsui (D)

3,407

2,061

1,346

52,827

CA-6

Woolsey (D)

8,827

6,831

1,997

89,755

CA-7

Miller (D)

5,952

4,423

1,529

74,277

CA-8

Pelosi (D)

9,483

7,462

2,021

88,313

CA-9

Lee (D)

5,560

4,054

1,506

72,663

CA-10

Garamendi (D)

10,271

7,833

2,438

97,503

CA-11

McNerney (D)

8,075

6,054

2,021

90,538

CA-12

Speier (D)

11,040

8,532

2,508

101,771

CA-13

Stark (D)

8,370

6,403

1,967

89,824

CA-14

Eshoo (D)

16,976

13,783

3,194

120,005

CA-15

Honda (D)

12,410

9,651

2,760

106,482

CA-16

Lofgren (D)

7,424

5,544

1,880

85,653

CA-17

Farr (D)

5,047

3,408

1,639

65,166

CA-18

Cardoza (D)

2,227

852

1,375

48,743

CA-19

Radanovich (R)

3,354

1,781

1,574

60,399

CA-20

Costa (D)

670

-459

1,130

34,983

CA-21

Nunes (R)

2,203

622

1,580

53,273

CA-22

McCarthy (R)

3,065

1,425

1,640

61,449

CA-23

Capps (D)

5,206

3,584

1,622

70,803

CA-24

Gallegly (R)

8,516

6,506

2,010

92,451

CA-25

McKeon (R)

5,002

3,325

1,677

69,408

CA-26

Dreier (R)

7,606

5,707

1,899

88,589

CA-27

Sherman (D)

4,524

2,957

1,567

65,315

CA-28

Berman (D)

3,094

1,739

1,355

52,697

CA-29

Schiff (D)

5,073

3,701

1,372

64,433

CA-30

Waxman (D)

13,249

10,397

2,852

120,192

CA-31

Becerra (D)

672

-626

1,298

35,419

CA-32

Chu (D)

2,950

1,393

1,558

58,727

CA-33

Watson (D)

2,656

1,297

1,359

50,411

CA-34

Roybal-Allard (D)

774

-901

1,675

41,211

CA-35

Waters (D)

1,502

47

1,455

46,097

CA-36

Harman (D)

8,602

6,647

1,956

80,009

CA-37

Richardson (D)

2,177

660

1,518

51,131

CA-38

Napolitano (D)

2,855

1,295

1,560

59,516

CA-39

Sánchez (D)

3,761

2,257

1,504

61,153

CA-40

Royce (R)

6,564

4,774

1,790

80,205

CA-41

Lewis (R)

3,052

1,555

1,497

60,327

CA-42

Miller (R)

9,819

7,524

2,295

102,106

CA-43

Baca (D)

2,581

936

1,645

52,322

CA-44

Calvert (R)

5,465

3,734

1,730

75,947

CA-45

Bono Mack (R)

3,036

1,539

1,497

59,870

CA-46

Rohrabacher (R)

10,035

7,781

2,255

95,064

CA-47

Sanchez (D)

2,433

874

1,558

53,180

CA-48

Campbell (R)

12,179

9,514

2,664

106,478

CA-49

Issa (R)

4,874

3,290

1,584

68,185

CA-50

Bilbray (R)

9,468

7,310

2,158

94,635

CA-51

Filner (D)

2,415

960

1,455

54,693

CA-52

Hunter (R)

6,673

4,967

1,706

78,379

CA-53

Davis (D)

5,028

3,538

1,491

61,853

CO-1

DeGette (D)

4,124

2,735

1,390

57,254

CO-2

Polis (D)

7,718

5,988

1,730

79,917

CO-3

Salazar (D)

4,250

2,681

1,569

57,869

CO-4

Markey (D)

5,863

4,197

1,665

65,851

CO-5

Lamborn (R)

5,617

4,037

1,579

67,089

CO-6

Coffman (R)

10,904

8,433

2,471

99,198

CO-7

Perlmutter (D)

4,898

3,489

1,409

62,525

CT-1

Larson (D)

7,694

5,947

1,747

78,712

CT-2

Courtney (D)

8,300

6,409

1,892

84,422

CT-3

DeLauro (D)

8,012

6,285

1,726

78,622

CT-4

Himes (D)

12,918

10,176

2,743

111,287

CT-5

Murphy (D)

8,060

6,241

1,818

82,516

DE-0

Castle (R)

6,147

4,507

1,640

68,745

DC-Del

Norton (D)

5,999

4,762

1,237

66,722

FL-1

Miller (R)

4,328

2,840

1,487

55,697

FL-2

Boyd (D)

4,014

2,453

1,561

55,096

FL-3

Brown (D)

2,515

1,495

1,020

40,306

FL-4

Crenshaw (R)

6,055

4,417

1,638

69,966

FL-5

Brown-Waite (R)

3,232

1,705

1,527

52,405

FL-6

Stearns (R)

4,370

2,868

1,502

58,379

FL-7

Mica (R)

5,282

3,630

1,652

63,593

FL-8

Grayson (D)

4,171

2,686

1,485

58,373

FL-9

Bilirakis (R)

4,709

3,183

1,525

65,985

FL-10

Young (R)

4,260

2,940

1,320

58,044

FL-11

Castor (D)

3,721

2,436

1,285

45,897

FL-12

Putnam (R)

3,645

2,244

1,401

52,736

FL-13

Buchanan (R)

3,901

2,588

1,313

58,862

FL-14

Mack (R)

4,816

3,419

1,397

63,368

FL-15

Posey (R)

3,671

2,180

1,491

58,516

FL-16

Rooney (R)

3,293

1,976

1,317

55,810

FL-17

Meek (D)

2,139

989

1,150

44,159

FL-18

Ros-Lehtinen (R)

3,127

1,788

1,339

51,888

FL-19

Deutch (D)

4,860

3,403

1,457

62,371

FL-20

Wasserman Schultz (D)

5,767

4,131

1,637

72,122

FL-21

Diaz-Balart (R)

3,308

1,951

1,357

53,671

FL-22

Klein (D)

6,624

4,840

1,784

78,358

FL-23

Hastings (D)

2,953

1,862

1,091

44,391

FL-24

Kosmas (D)

4,552

3,084

1,468

63,350

FL-25

Diaz-Balart (R)

3,939

2,551

1,388

59,675

GA-1

Kingston (R)

3,288

1,810

1,478

52,030

GA-2

Bishop (D)

2,094

842

1,253

44,624

GA-3

Westmoreland (R)

3,598

1,815

1,783

64,644

GA-4

Johnson (D)

4,306

3,121

1,185

55,639

GA-5

Lewis (D)

5,592

4,236

1,357

66,099

GA-6

Price (R)

11,169

8,718

2,451

97,933

GA-7

Linder (R)

6,271

4,630

1,641

74,378

GA-8

Marshall (D)

4,095

2,766

1,329

52,588

GA-9

Graves (R)

3,363

1,732

1,631

57,128

GA-10

Broun (R)

3,624

2,218

1,406

53,406

GA-11

Gingrey (R)

4,127

2,505

1,622

62,031

GA-12

Barrow (D)

3,301

1,859

1,442

46,990

GA-13

Scott (D)

4,374

2,855

1,519

61,576

HI-1

Djou (R)

7,746

5,962

1,784

80,535

HI-2

Hirono (D)

6,272

4,529

1,743

76,927

ID-1

Minnick (D)

3,782

2,238

1,544

55,254

ID-2

Simpson (R)

3,209

1,610

1,598

54,075

IL-1

Rush (D)

3,300

1,999

1,301

53,432

IL-2

Jackson (D)

3,200

1,885

1,315

54,842

IL-3

Lipinski (D)

5,170

3,565

1,604

68,215

IL-4

Gutierrez (D)

2,321

963

1,358

44,497

IL-5

Quigley (D)

6,560

4,961

1,599

74,362

IL-6

Roskam (R)

8,737

6,764

1,972

81,789

IL-7

Davis (D)

4,287

2,705

1,582

59,934

IL-8

Bean (D)

8,532

6,630

1,902

87,181

IL-9

Schakowsky (D)

7,950

6,185

1,765

77,784

IL-10

Kirk (R)

10,311

7,830

2,480

103,849

IL-11

Halvorson (D)

6,225

4,458

1,767

70,461

IL-12

Costello (D)

3,672

2,280

1,392

54,473

IL-13

Biggert (R)

10,860

8,401

2,459

99,389

IL-14

Foster (D)

6,995

5,190

1,805

77,445

IL-15

Johnson (R)

5,373

3,674

1,699

61,612

IL-16

Manzullo (R)

6,517

4,826

1,691

69,303

IL-17

Hare (D)

3,681

2,307

1,374

52,105

IL-18

Schock (R)

5,153

3,582

1,571

65,371

IL-19

Shimkus (R)

4,694

3,215

1,479

61,094

IN-1

Visclosky (D)

4,690

3,144

1,546

64,092

IN-2

Donnelly (D)

3,708

2,277

1,431

54,351

IN-3

VACANT (?)

4,292

2,645

1,647

58,141

IN-4

Buyer (R)

5,160

3,561

1,599

65,974

IN-5

Burton (R)

7,337

5,547

1,790

74,478

IN-6

Pence (R)

3,826

2,359

1,467

54,841

IN-7

Carson (D)

3,477

2,166

1,310

47,745

IN-8

Ellsworth (D)

3,956

2,493

1,463

55,627

IN-9

Hill (D)

4,244

2,854

1,390

56,383

IA-1

Braley (D)

4,855

3,295

1,560

60,614

IA-2

Loebsack (D)

5,962

4,339

1,623

63,639

IA-3

Boswell (D)

6,212

4,573

1,639

68,412

IA-4

Latham (R)

4,742

3,188

1,554

60,632

IA-5

King (R)

4,880

3,143

1,737

56,353

KS-1

Moran (R)

3,796

2,288

1,508

55,126

KS-2

Jenkins (R)

4,181

2,715

1,466

58,345

KS-3

Moore (D)

8,852

6,933

1,918

81,421

KS-4

Tiahrt (R)

4,720

3,011

1,709

60,229

KY-1

Whitfield (R)

2,119

837

1,282

45,531

KY-2

Guthrie (R)

3,720

2,259

1,461

51,874

KY-3

Yarmuth (D)

5,122

3,559

1,563

61,703

KY-4

Davis (R)

5,039

3,287

1,753

60,419

KY-5

Rogers (R)

812

-201

1,013

35,180

KY-6

Chandler (D)

5,137

3,467

1,669

60,499

LA-1

Scalise (R)

4,821

3,322

1,499

62,259

LA-2

Cao (R)

3,468

2,294

1,175

50,066

LA-3

Melancon (D)

3,803

2,399

1,404

55,776

LA-4

Fleming (R)

2,825

1,403

1,422

48,944

LA-5

Alexander (R)

2,610

1,209

1,402

46,890

LA-6

Cassidy (R)

4,748

3,322

1,426

60,522

LA-7

Boustany (R)

3,545

2,150

1,395

53,193

ME-1

Pingree (D)

5,303

3,782

1,521

65,143

ME-2

Michaud (D)

3,160

1,877

1,283

51,370

MD-1

Kratovil (D)

7,585

5,846

1,739

83,458

MD-2

Ruppersberger (D)

5,855

4,387

1,469

69,364

MD-3

Sarbanes (D)

8,216

6,417

1,799

86,513

MD-4

Edwards (D)

8,806

6,870

1,936

86,257

MD-5

Hoyer (D)

9,487

7,449

2,038

94,899

MD-6

Bartlett (R)

7,069

5,453

1,616

79,670

MD-7

Cummings (D)

5,541

4,179

1,361

67,233

MD-8

Van Hollen (D)

14,221

11,445

2,776

112,243

MA-1

Olver (D)

5,753

4,239

1,514

69,498

MA-2

Neal (D)

6,430

4,844

1,586

72,549

MA-3

McGovern (D)

7,592

5,785

1,807

80,474

MA-4

Frank (D)

9,125

7,171

1,954

85,241

MA-5

Tsongas (D)

9,048

6,889

2,159

88,788

MA-6

Tierney (D)

9,966

7,698

2,268

93,951

MA-7

Markey (D)

9,574

7,494

2,080

89,671

MA-8

Capuano (D)

4,817

3,339

1,477

59,154

MA-9

Lynch (D)

9,148

7,238

1,910

88,677

MA-10

Delahunt (D)

9,760

7,496

2,264

85,242

MI-1

Stupak (D)

2,804

1,502

1,302

49,435

MI-2

Hoekstra (R)

4,005

2,487

1,518

56,391

MI-3

Ehlers (R)

4,274

2,707

1,567

61,557

MI-4

Camp (R)

3,266

1,932

1,334

52,487

MI-5

Kildee (D)

3,254

1,877

1,377

52,826

MI-6

Upton (R)

4,235

2,801

1,434

56,102

MI-7

Schauer (D)

5,002

3,400

1,602

61,291

MI-8

Rogers (R)

6,922

5,196

1,726

73,045

MI-9

Peters (D)

10,101

7,984

2,117

93,615

MI-10

Miller (R)

5,724

4,046

1,678

68,568

MI-11

McCotter (R)

8,066

6,246

1,820

80,515

MI-12

Levin (D)

4,857

3,529

1,329

61,167

MI-13

Kilpatrick (D)

460

-566

1,026

36,587

MI-14

Conyers (D)

2,125

997

1,128

42,708

MI-15

Dingell (D)

5,503

3,991

1,512

67,189

MN-1

Walz (DFL)

5,278

3,661

1,617

64,564

MN-2

Kline (R)

9,408

7,384

2,023

86,364

MN-3

Paulsen (R)

10,323

8,124

2,198

94,486

MN-4

McCollum (DFL)

7,213

5,559

1,655

73,316

MN-5

Ellison (DFL)

5,593

4,286

1,307

67,694

MN-6

Bachmann (R)

8,019

5,971

2,049

80,007

MN-7

Peterson (DFL)

4,225

2,750

1,475

57,359

MN-8

Oberstar (DFL)

4,317

2,812

1,505

57,874

MS-1

Childers (D)

2,439

1,098

1,341

47,388

MS-2

Thompson (D)

1,530

393

1,137

37,471

MS-3

Harper (R)

2,905

1,446

1,460

48,788

MS-4

Taylor (D)

3,847

2,291

1,556

51,904

MO-1

Clay (D)

3,434

2,079

1,355

52,512

MO-2

Akin (R)

10,167

8,058

2,108

88,802

MO-3

Carnahan (D)

5,510

4,067

1,443

66,735

MO-4

Skelton (D)

3,654

2,145

1,509

51,614

MO-5

Cleaver (D)

4,451

2,930

1,521

59,762

MO-6

Graves (R)

4,907

3,419

1,488

62,006

MO-7

Blunt (R)

3,018

1,511

1,507

51,516

MO-8

Emerson (R)

1,965

589

1,376

42,562

MO-9

Luetkemeyer (R)

4,456

2,903

1,552

55,467

MT-0

Rehberg (R)

4,183

2,727

1,456

56,820

NE-1

Fortenberry (R)

5,378

3,697

1,681

63,806

NE-2

Terry (R)

5,555

4,041

1,513

69,312

NE-3

Smith (R)

4,355

2,716

1,639

54,285

NV-1

Berkley (D)

3,584

2,121

1,463

57,365

NV-2

Heller (R)

5,167

3,637

1,529

66,009

NV-3

Titus (D)

5,934

4,314

1,620

70,666

NH-1

Shea-Porter (D)

7,125

5,420

1,705

78,450

NH-2

Hodes (D)

6,894

5,250

1,644

75,654

NJ-1

Andrews (D)

6,633

5,038

1,594

74,542

NJ-2

LoBiondo (R)

5,420

3,901

1,519

68,022

NJ-3

Adler (D)

8,281

6,481

1,800

86,437

NJ-4

Smith (R)

7,828

6,033

1,795

85,896

NJ-5

Garrett (R)

12,508

9,844

2,665

106,871

NJ-6

Pallone (D)

8,630

6,768

1,862

84,452

NJ-7

Lance (R)

12,817

10,091

2,727

113,719

NJ-8

Pascrell (D)

6,433

4,810

1,624

77,339

NJ-9

Rothman (D)

7,878

6,147

1,731

82,070

NJ-10

Payne (D)

4,941

3,570

1,371

57,600

NJ-11

Frelinghuysen (R)

14,791

11,804

2,987

116,909

NJ-12

Holt (D)

12,657

9,928

2,729

108,162

NJ-13

Sires (D)

3,610

2,307

1,303

52,539

NM-1

Heinrich (D)

4,893

3,301

1,592

59,620

NM-2

Teague (D)

1,994

615

1,378

44,082

NM-3

Luján (D)

3,763

2,337

1,426

55,040

NY-1

Bishop (D)

9,439

7,370

2,069

96,190

NY-2

Israel (D)

10,058

7,851

2,208

103,009

NY-3

King (R)

11,559

9,262

2,297

106,893

NY-4

McCarthy (D)

9,763

7,671

2,092

102,050

NY-5

Ackerman (D)

6,973

5,238

1,736

76,812

NY-6

Meeks (D)

5,030

3,542

1,488

63,396

NY-7

Crowley (D)

3,317

1,850

1,467

54,673

NY-8

Nadler (D)

5,910

4,360

1,550

65,121

NY-9

Weiner (D)

5,851

4,121

1,730

70,719

NY-10

Towns (D)

3,088

1,712

1,375

47,302

NY-11

Clarke (D)

3,418

2,134

1,285

51,625

NY-12

Velázquez (D)

2,605

1,267

1,338

44,078

NY-13

McMahon (D)

6,846

5,188

1,658

76,694

NY-14

Maloney (D)

15,042

11,976

3,066

111,717

NY-15

Rangel (D)

2,105

902

1,204

42,585

NY-16

Serrano (D)

-1,122

-1,939

816

25,359

NY-17

Engel (D)

5,616

4,087

1,530

66,833

NY-18

Lowey (D)

10,925

8,728

2,198

107,608

NY-19

Hall (D)

9,700

7,585

2,115

99,089

NY-20

Murphy (D)

5,691

4,119

1,572

68,119

NY-21

Tonko (D)

5,834

4,224

1,610

69,219

NY-22

Hinchey (D)

4,834

3,423

1,411

63,050

NY-23

Owens (D)

3,552

2,021

1,532

54,248

NY-24

Arcuri (D)

4,352

2,886

1,466

57,049

NY-25

Maffei (D)

5,897

4,352

1,544

69,169

NY-26

Lee (R)

5,805

4,305

1,500

70,497

NY-27

Higgins (D)

4,112

2,713

1,399

58,430

NY-28

Slaughter (D)

2,914

1,694

1,220

50,364

NY-29

VACANT (?)

4,594

3,074

1,520

61,683

NC-1

Butterfield (D)

2,609

1,453

1,157

41,892

NC-2

Etheridge (D)

3,903

2,427

1,477

53,681

NC-3

Jones (R)

3,980

2,295

1,684

59,551

NC-4

Price (D)

8,362

6,519

1,843

86,876

NC-5

Foxx (R)

3,648

2,285

1,363

55,624

NC-6

Coble (R)

3,979

2,356

1,623

60,106

NC-7

McIntyre (D)

3,216

1,845

1,371

51,634

NC-8

Kissell (D)

3,552

2,282

1,270

51,617

NC-9

Myrick (R)

7,227

5,482

1,745

78,422

NC-10

McHenry (R)

3,458

2,077

1,382

51,281

NC-11

Shuler (D)

3,170

1,817

1,353

50,003

NC-12

Watt (D)

3,515

2,192

1,323

48,251

NC-13

Miller (D)

4,642

3,283

1,359

57,064

ND-0

Pomeroy (D)

5,280

3,714

1,566

61,109

OH-1

Driehaus (D)

4,950

3,476

1,474

61,352

OH-2

Schmidt (R)

6,181

4,537

1,644

70,834

OH-3

Turner (R)

4,884

3,388

1,497

60,469

OH-4

Jordan (R)

3,961

2,432

1,529

56,131

OH-5

Latta (R)

4,667

3,173

1,494

57,965

OH-6

Wilson (D)

3,150

1,752

1,398

51,088

OH-7

Austria (R)

4,735

3,323

1,412

60,443

OH-8

Boehner (R)

4,649

3,150

1,499

60,876

OH-9

Kaptur (D)

4,242

2,786

1,456

58,008

OH-10

Kucinich (D)

4,605

3,255

1,350

60,355

OH-11

Fudge (D)

2,538

1,255

1,283

47,414

OH-12

Tiberi (R)

6,999

5,345

1,654

75,009

OH-13

Sutton (D)

5,323

3,782

1,541

63,269

OH-14

LaTourette (R)

6,225

4,636

1,589

73,152

OH-15

Kilroy (D)

5,756

4,062

1,694

67,176

OH-16

Boccieri (D)

4,821

3,351

1,470

60,004

OH-17

Ryan (D)

3,933

2,537

1,396

53,117

OH-18

Space (D)

2,749

1,319

1,430

48,842

OK-1

Sullivan (R)

4,805

3,318

1,487

61,239

OK-2

Boren (D)

2,194

921

1,273

44,753

OK-3

Lucas (R)

3,522

2,066

1,456

54,319

OK-4

Cole (R)

3,855

2,325

1,530

56,830

OK-5

Fallin (R)

3,646

2,316

1,330

53,868

OR-1

Wu (D)

6,902

5,174

1,728

75,887

OR-2

Walden (R)

3,696

2,186

1,509

52,740

OR-3

Blumenauer (D)

5,491

3,868

1,623

65,013

OR-4

DeFazio (D)

3,432

2,070

1,362

53,372

OR-5

Schrader (D)

4,858

3,224

1,635

64,210

PA-1

Brady (D)

1,603

568

1,035

38,518

PA-2

Fattah (D)

2,553

1,418

1,135

47,099

PA-3

Dahlkemper (D)

4,381

2,948

1,433

55,352

PA-4

Altmire (D)

5,946

4,314

1,631

69,099

PA-5

Thompson (R)

3,331

1,882

1,449

50,364

PA-6

Gerlach (R)

9,133

7,123

2,010

87,214

PA-7

Sestak (D)

9,763

7,490

2,273

94,420

PA-8

Murphy (D)

9,741

7,721

2,020

91,182

PA-9

Shuster (R)

3,835

2,385

1,450

53,105

PA-10

Carney (D)

4,052

2,488

1,564

55,028

PA-11

Kanjorski (D)

4,011

2,588

1,423

54,619

PA-12

Critz (D)

3,366

2,038

1,328

49,636

PA-13

Schwartz (D)

7,205

5,459

1,746

78,729

PA-14

Doyle (D)

3,991

2,709

1,283

52,570

PA-15

Dent (R)

6,368

4,617

1,751

70,201

PA-16

Pitts (R)

5,854

4,146

1,708

67,997

PA-17

Holden (D)

5,244

3,771

1,474

62,606

PA-18

Murphy (R)

6,043

4,406

1,637

71,682

PA-19

Platts (R)

6,099

4,567

1,532

69,963

RI-1

Kennedy (D)

6,424

4,873

1,551

71,186

RI-2

Langevin (D)

7,457

5,827

1,630

72,797

SC-1

Brown (R)

4,310

2,828

1,482

61,876

SC-2

Wilson (R)

5,107

3,567

1,539

65,730

SC-3

Barrett (R)

2,929

1,611

1,318

52,705

SC-4

Inglis (R)

4,294

2,918

1,376

58,733

SC-5

Spratt (D)

3,843

2,308

1,535

51,524

SC-6

Clyburn (D)

2,674

1,581

1,093

43,670

SD-0

Herseth Sandlin (D)

5,151

3,452

1,698

60,104

TN-1

Roe (R)

2,864

1,470

1,394

46,510

TN-2

Duncan (R)

4,711

3,244

1,467

58,024

TN-3

Wamp (R)

3,383

2,051

1,332

52,868

TN-4

Davis (D)

2,707

1,246

1,461

44,907

TN-5

Cooper (D)

4,663

3,191

1,472

60,053

TN-6

Gordon (D)

4,097

2,613

1,484

56,775

TN-7

Blackburn (R)

6,367

4,570

1,797

72,889

TN-8

Tanner (D)

2,942

1,629

1,313

47,339

TN-9

Cohen (D)

2,885

1,621

1,264

46,552

TX-1

Gohmert (R)

3,578

1,969

1,609

51,938

TX-2

Poe (R)

5,918

4,137

1,781

70,820

TX-3

Johnson (R)

8,193

6,298

1,895

82,041

TX-4

Hall (R)

4,154

2,648

1,506

59,760

TX-5

Hensarling (R)

4,294

2,796

1,498

58,082

TX-6

Barton (R)

5,131

3,506

1,625

65,456

TX-7

Culberson (R)

8,194

5,826

2,368

93,273

TX-8

Brady (R)

5,340

3,578

1,762

64,507

TX-9

Green (D)

3,000

1,782

1,218

42,236

TX-10

McCaul (R)

6,998

5,315

1,683

75,721

TX-11

Conaway (R)

4,123

2,495

1,628

55,247

TX-12

Granger (R)

5,197

3,552

1,644

63,282

TX-13

Thornberry (R)

3,869

2,356

1,513

54,887

TX-14

Paul (R)

6,037

4,291

1,746

68,130

TX-15

Hinojosa (D)

1,018

-373

1,391

37,448

TX-16

Reyes (D)

1,502

-79

1,581

41,880

TX-17

Edwards (D)

4,231

2,601

1,630

57,203

TX-18

Jackson-Lee (D)

2,585

1,203

1,382

43,780

TX-19

Neugebauer (R)

3,384

1,916

1,468

52,055

TX-20

Gonzalez (D)

2,554

1,084

1,470

44,554

TX-21

Smith (R)

7,400

5,558

1,842

76,406

TX-22

Olson (R)

7,910

5,915

1,995

81,808

TX-23

Rodriguez (D)

2,990

1,499

1,492

51,144

TX-24

Marchant (R)

6,886

5,097

1,789

76,834

TX-25

Doggett (D)

2,248

275

1,973

61,043

TX-26

Burgess (R)

7,765

5,865

1,900

77,894

TX-27

Ortiz (D)

1,744

298

1,446

44,623

TX-28

Cuellar (D)

2,370

1,180

1,189

41,357

TX-29

Green (D)

2,362

950

1,412

40,669

TX-30

Johnson (D)

1,322

-6

1,328

38,546

TX-31

Carter (R)

5,349

3,689

1,660

65,694

TX-32

Sessions (R)

3,511

1,919

1,592

54,898

UT-1

Bishop (R)

4,249

2,500

1,749

63,778

UT-2

Matheson (D)

4,811

2,972

1,839

67,623

UT-3

Chaffetz (R)

4,021

2,251

1,770

64,216

VT-0

Welch (D)

5,000

3,448

1,552

63,438

VA-1

Wittman (R)

7,170

5,421

1,749

80,132

VA-2

Nye (D)

5,861

4,183

1,679

70,651

VA-3

Scott (D)

3,400

2,173

1,228

50,811

VA-4

Forbes (R)

5,448

3,957

1,491

67,929

VA-5

Perriello (D)

3,291

1,935

1,356

53,097

VA-6

Goodlatte (R)

4,296

2,830

1,466

59,042

VA-7

Cantor (R)

7,090

5,389

1,701

80,514

VA-8

Moran (D)

15,048

12,152

2,895

111,455

VA-9

Boucher (D)

2,221

1,012

1,209

45,863

VA-10

Wolf (R)

13,344

10,459

2,885

108,760

VA-11

Connolly (D)

15,473

12,292

3,180

120,135

WA-1

Inslee (D)

9,887

7,717

2,170

90,991

WA-2

Larsen (D)

5,246

3,751

1,495

66,969

WA-3

Baird (D)

4,773

3,283

1,490

65,092

WA-4

Hastings (R)

3,091

1,647

1,445

52,971

WA-5

McMorris Rodgers (R)

4,597

2,949

1,648

58,617

WA-6

Dicks (D)

4,485

3,021

1,465

60,191

WA-7

McDermott (D)

8,799

6,917

1,882

85,499

WA-8

Reichert (R)

10,255

8,002

2,253

94,846

WA-9

Smith (D)

5,862

4,242

1,620

69,591

WV-1

Mollohan (D)

3,573

2,275

1,298

51,319

WV-2

Capito (R)

4,101

2,608

1,493

54,409

WV-3

Rahall (D)

1,519

410

1,110

42,140

WI-1

Ryan (R)

6,470

4,780

1,689

72,329

WI-2

Baldwin (D)

7,230

5,565

1,666

74,898

WI-3

Kind (D)

4,964

3,358

1,606

61,933

WI-4

Moore (D)

2,210

1,013

1,197

45,998

WI-5

Sensenbrenner (R)

8,882

6,966

1,916

85,336

WI-6

Petri (R)

5,023

3,518

1,506

63,986

WI-7

Obey (D)

4,301

2,842

1,460

57,390

WI-8

Kagen (D)

5,040

3,588

1,452

61,133

WY-0

Lummis (R)

5,467

3,810

1,657

66,504

To see the data above by congressional district ranked by tax savings (in both dollar amounts and as a percentage of income), click here.

Methodology

The term "Bush-era tax cuts" refers to the series of tax cuts put in place between 2001 and 2006 that are set to sunset this year. In both scenarios, we assume a patch for the alternative minimum tax (AMT) and an extension of the standard deduction for real estate taxes paid.  The source of the income data is the 2008 American Community Survey PUMS file. Congressional districts for each record were imputed using each record's PUMA. Those records in a PUMA containing more than one congressional district were split and weighted based upon the share of total population for that PUMA that resides in each congressional district. This "crosswalk" came from the University of Missouri's "Missouri Data Center" and its MABLE/Geocorr2K project. Imputations for capital gains, dividends and various itemized deductions for each record were also performed using a combination of IRS summary data and IRS microdata. Due to the weak economy between 2008 and 2011, we felt it was unnecessary to grow the records' income variables. We then identify which families (i.e., arrangements with two or more persons as defined by Census) are in the middle 20 percent (based upon family income as defined by the Census) within each state and congressional district. Each record was then run through a tax microsimulation calculator for both scenarios (Bush extended and Bush expire) for 2011, and following aggregation, producing an average effective tax rate for the middle 20 percent within each state and congressional district under both scenarios. Finally, we apply these average effective tax rates to the actual median family income for each state and congressional district per summary data from the 2008 American Community Survey.

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